Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4372 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 4372 SMF 06:35 → SAN 08:17 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3970 SMF 19:30 → SAN 21:13 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4372 Southwest	SMF 06:35	SAN 08:17	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4373 Southwest	SMF 07:45	SAN 09:28	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
AS 490 Alaska	SMF 07:10	SAN 08:50	26%	5%	1.4%	no record
OO 3330 SkyWest	SMF 10:19	SAN 12:05	30%	13%	0.9%	no record
WN 4782 Southwest	SMF 10:45	SAN 12:28	30%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2699 Southwest	SMF 10:03	SAN 11:46	30%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 343 Southwest	SMF 12:10	SAN 13:54	32%	9%	0.7%	no record
OO 3360 SkyWest	SMF 14:54	SAN 16:41	34%	12%	1.1%	no record
WN 3382 Southwest	SMF 15:10	SAN 16:54	35%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 4768 Southwest	SMF 11:25	SAN 13:08	35%	9%	0.7%	no record
AS 3410 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 21:15	SAN 22:58	36%	13%	1.3%	67%
WN 3967 Southwest	SMF 13:00	SAN 14:43	36%	8%	0.7%	no record
AS 350 Alaska	SMF 17:22	SAN 19:03	38%	9%	1.5%	no record
WN 4921 Southwest	SMF 21:05	SAN 22:49	42%	16%	0.7%	no record
WN 3663 Southwest	SMF 17:30	SAN 19:14	45%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 657 Southwest	SMF 18:20	SAN 20:04	45%	15%	0.7%	no record
WN 3970 Southwest	SMF 19:30	SAN 21:13	45%	15%	0.7%	no record
AS 2406 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 16:43	SAN 18:20	38%	8%	2.0%	62%
AS 2101 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 10:13	SAN 11:50	43%	11%	2.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON