Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 4003 at 17:50, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4003 Southwest	SMF 17:50	SBA 19:17	23%	8%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526	2h 39m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 29m	97%	86%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:47 → SBA 13:05AS 2317 · flown by Horizon	4h 52m	91%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 33m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03DL 3853 · flown by SkyWest	6h 18m	97%	78%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 09m Phoenix	PHX 10:04 → SBA 11:52AA 2928	5h 52m	98%	77%
United Details →	SMF 07:34 → LAX 09:11UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest	3h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SBA 14:04UA 5893 · flown by SkyWest	6h 30m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	82%	67%
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:13 → SEA 13:09AS 1365	2h 39m Seattle	SEA 15:48 → SBA 17:59AS 468	6h 46m	99%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 10:13 → SAN 11:50AS 2101 · flown by Horizon	59m San Diego	SAN 12:49 → SBA 14:02AS 2177 · flown by Horizon	3h 49m	55%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON