Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1329 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1329 SMF 06:00 → SFO 07:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5323 SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1329 United	SMF 06:00	SFO 07:09	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 8845 Delta	SMF 16:02	SFO 16:53	23%	10%	1.3%	no record
OO 5218 SkyWest	SMF 11:51	SFO 13:14	32%	13%	0.8%	no record
UA 5961 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 20:29	SFO 21:47	36%	14%	0.9%	43%
UA 5323 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:10	SFO 15:34	37%	14%	0.9%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON