Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1526 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1526 SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest WN 775 SMF 21:45 → SLC 00:30 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1526 Delta Flight history →	SMF 05:30	SLC 08:11	8%	3%	0.7%	97%
DL 1367 Delta Flight history →	SMF 09:45	SLC 12:27	13%	4%	0.7%	92%
DL 1797 Delta	SMF 13:26	SLC 16:08	22%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2909 Southwest	SMF 13:05	SLC 15:50	27%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 2585 Delta Flight history →	SMF 19:20	SLC 22:02	29%	9%	1.1%	91%worse than usual
DL 1342 Delta Flight history →	SMF 17:00	SLC 19:41	31%	7%	1.6%	83%worse than usual
WN 775 Southwest	SMF 21:45	SLC 00:30	32%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON