Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3749 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–23%.

Safest bet that day WN 3749 SMF 07:20 → SNA 09:00 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3982 SMF 19:05 → SNA 20:46 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3749 Southwest	SMF 07:20	SNA 09:00	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1226 Southwest	SMF 08:50	SNA 10:30	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2287 Southwest	SMF 11:20	SNA 13:01	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3752 Southwest	SMF 12:30	SNA 14:11	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3983 Southwest	SMF 20:40	SNA 22:20	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3981 Southwest	SMF 15:49	SNA 17:30	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3982 Southwest	SMF 19:05	SNA 20:46	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON