Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2755 at 12:55, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2755 Southwest	SMF 12:55	STL 18:41	26%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652	5h 42m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526	1h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455	6h 03m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	3h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 15:11 → STL 16:50DL 1224	8h 35m	98%	81%
Alaska Details →	SMF 06:02 → SEA 07:56AS 1358	1h 45m Seattle	SEA 09:41 → STL 15:26AS 647	7h 24m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	9h 32m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	9h 23m	98%	72%
American Details →	SMF 05:18 → DFW 10:47AA 1544	3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:44 → STL 16:37AA 3944 · flown by Envoy	9h 19m	99%	72%
United Details →	SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863	54m Houston	IAH 11:55 → STL 14:01UA 2042	6h 46m	89%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 09:35 → ORD 15:36UA 1278	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 16:45 → STL 18:13UA 4518 · flown by GoJet	6h 38m	75%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON