Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Las Vegas, leaving 10:45, is the safest bet: 57% chance of reaching Atlanta on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 721 Delta Flight history →	SNA 07:45	ATL 15:11	21%	6%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 09:00 → MSP 14:36DL 2185	2h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:05DL 1036	9h 05m	96%	75%
United Details →	SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest	3h 52m San Francisco	SFO 21:42 → ATL 05:37 +1UA 233	10h 25m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277	3h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:35 → ATL 05:14 +1DL 912	9h 11m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 23:02 → ATL 06:05 +1DL 787	7h 06m	89%	70%
Delta Details →	SNA 08:00 → SLC 10:58DL 1185	2h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	8h 22m	93%	69%
Delta Details →	SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875	8h 35m	96%	65%
United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 17m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	6h 45m	92%	64%
Delta Details →	SNA 10:45 → LAS 12:04DL 4078 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Las Vegas	LAS 14:38 → ATL 21:49DL 591	8h 04m	96%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198	49m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 32m	67%	49%
Delta Details →	SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:07 → ATL 05:06 +1DL 417	6h 07m	68%	49%
United Details →	SNA 07:47 → EWR 16:01UA 661	52m Newark	EWR 16:53 → ATL 19:21UA 2304	8h 34m	68%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON