Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3985 at 07:45, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3985 Southwest	SNA 07:45	AUS 12:45	9%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700	1h 13m Houston	IAH 14:20 → AUS 15:29UA 6118 · flown by Mesa	5h 44m	93%	72%
American Details →	SNA 08:46 → DFW 13:56AA 2596	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:19 → AUS 18:27AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	7h 41m	98%	70%
United Details →	SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489	1h 40m Denver	DEN 13:49 → AUS 17:14UA 8167	6h 29m	94%	69%
United Details →	SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843	1h 52m Denver	DEN 15:35 → AUS 18:48UA 1899	6h 28m	100%	67%
United Details →	SNA 12:06 → IAH 17:41UA 2044	2h 37m Houston	IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621	7h 19m	96%	67%
Delta Details →	SNA 08:00 → SLC 10:58DL 1185	2h 21m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:19 → AUS 17:07DL 2689	7h 07m	92%	66%
United Details →	SNA 15:05 → IAH 20:27UA 643	1h 48m Houston	IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179	6h 07m	92%	65%
Southwest Details →	SNA 13:37 → LAS 14:53WN 580	2h 12m Las Vegas	LAS 17:05 → AUS 21:51WN 4532	6h 14m	95%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest	46m San Francisco	SFO 18:36 → AUS 00:16 +1UA 2332	6h 04m	56%	44%
American Details →	SNA 15:39 → DFW 20:41AA 2465	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972	5h 00m	49%	25%
Alaska Details →	SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760	47m Seattle	SEA 18:19 → AUS 00:31 +1AS 372	7h 46m	23%	16%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON