tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: AS 239 at 12:18 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 35%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 239 Alaska SNA 12:18 BOI 15:29 17% 5% 0.8% no record
G4 1593 Allegiant SNA 14:02 BOI 17:17 35% 14% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760 2h 27m Seattle SEA 19:59 → BOI 22:24AS 2034 · flown by Horizon 6h 39m 95% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548 2h 46m Seattle SEA 17:40 → BOI 20:07AS 2109 · flown by Horizon 7h 02m 97% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 10:57 → PDX 13:21AS 1405 1h 37m Portland PDX 14:58 → BOI 17:16AS 342 5h 19m 95% 77%
UnitedDetails → SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m San Francisco SFO 20:59 → BOI 23:55UA 6027 · flown by SkyWest 6h 43m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:45 → SEA 10:41AS 1325 2h 15m Seattle SEA 12:56 → BOI 15:25AS 467 6h 40m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 2h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 22:50 → BOI 00:05 +1DL 2111 6h 02m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → SNA 09:50 → SLC 12:46DL 1198 3h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 16:37 → BOI 17:51DL 2920 7h 01m 97% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 11:25 → GEG 13:59AS 2020 · flown by Horizon 2h 06m Spokane GEG 16:05 → BOI 18:13AS 2264 · flown by Horizon 5h 48m 97% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 16:25 → PHX 17:54AA 2463 58m Phoenix PHX 18:52 → BOI 22:11AA 4952 · flown by SkyWest 4h 46m 56% 45%
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 52m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BOI 22:04DL 4446 · flown by SkyWest 4h 01m 50% 39%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548 51m Seattle SEA 15:45 → BOI 18:11AS 2061 · flown by Horizon 5h 06m 40% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON