Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 07:45 → ATL 15:11DL 721	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → CLT 20:11DL 2132	9h 26m	97%	70%
American Details →	SNA 07:46 → PHX 09:16AA 628	3h 01m Phoenix	PHX 12:17 → CLT 19:32AA 1617	8h 46m	96%	67%
American Details →	SNA 20:24 → PHX 21:49AA 2471	1h 54m Phoenix	PHX 23:43 → CLT 06:52 +1AA 2821	7h 28m	77%	62%
American Details →	SNA 08:46 → DFW 13:56AA 2596	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:58 → CLT 19:33AA 2013	7h 47m	97%	61%
United Details →	SNA 07:47 → EWR 16:01UA 661	3h 03m Newark	EWR 19:04 → CLT 20:55UA 1168	10h 08m	98%	56%
American Details →	SNA 09:34 → DFW 14:47AA 1686	4h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → CLT 22:21AA 3002	9h 47m	93%	56%
American Details →	SNA 10:28 → DFW 15:38AA 2114	2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:54 → CLT 21:44AA 1703	8h 16m	93%	55%
American Details →	SNA 08:50 → ORD 15:13AA 2590	3h 34m Chicago	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	10h 09m	95%	44%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SNA 20:24 → PHX 21:49AA 2471	1h 02m Phoenix	PHX 22:51 → CLT 06:03 +1AA 2714	6h 39m	59%	44%
American Details →	SNA 11:43 → ORD 18:02AA 2285	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 19:09 → CLT 22:13AA 1187	7h 30m	59%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON