tailodds FORECAST
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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 09:00, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 09:00 → MSP 14:36DL 2185 3h 59m Minneapolis MSP 18:35 → DCA 22:02DL 2962 10h 02m 98% 70%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 56m Houston IAH 17:03 → DCA 21:24UA 235 10h 39m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:06 → IAH 17:41UA 2044 2h 09m Houston IAH 19:50 → DCA 23:59UA 2224 8h 53m 90% 66%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:45 → ATL 15:11DL 721 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 7h 52m 91% 62%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:46 → PHX 09:16AA 628 3h 46m Phoenix PHX 13:02 → DCA 20:32AA 1787 9h 46m 98% 61%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:45 → SEA 10:41AS 1325 3h 05m Seattle SEA 13:46 → DCA 21:59AS 2 11h 14m 100% 60%
AmericanDetails → SNA 08:46 → DFW 13:56AA 2596 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:01 → DCA 19:20AA 2520 7h 34m 85% 53%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:43 → ORD 18:02AA 2285 3h 03m Chicago ORD 21:05 → DCA 00:19 +1AA 535 9h 36m 90% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON