Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4682 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 4682 SNA 07:45 → DEN 11:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1475 SNA 14:55 → DEN 18:18 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4682 Southwest	SNA 07:45	DEN 11:09	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 489 United Flight history →	SNA 08:45	DEN 12:09	13%	5%	0.7%	92%
UA 2843 United Flight history →	SNA 10:20	DEN 13:43	19%	6%	0.7%	99%worse than usual
UA 2426 United	SNA 10:33	DEN 14:06	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
F9 4372 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 11:15	DEN 14:52	22%	8%	0.9%	86%
WN 2162 Southwest	SNA 11:03	DEN 14:28	25%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2656 United Flight history →	SNA 18:26	DEN 21:47	31%	11%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
WN 424 Southwest	SNA 19:45	DEN 23:08	33%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1048 United	SNA 16:08	DEN 19:32	37%	15%	0.8%	no record
UA 1352 United	SNA 15:01	DEN 18:33	39%	14%	0.8%	no record
UA 680 United	SNA 13:02	DEN 16:26	41%	13%	0.8%	no record
WN 3988 Southwest	SNA 17:35	DEN 20:57	42%	11%	0.7%	no record
WN 1475 Southwest	SNA 14:55	DEN 18:18	50%	15%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON