Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2596 at 08:46 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 2596 SNA 08:46 → DFW 13:56 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2659 SNA 16:30 → DFW 21:40 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2596 American Flight history →	SNA 08:46	DFW 13:56	16%	6%	1.3%	86%
AA 3170 American	SNA 07:42	DFW 12:52	16%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 1686 American Flight history →	SNA 09:34	DFW 14:47	24%	6%	1.2%	88%worse than usual
AA 2114 American Flight history →	SNA 10:28	DFW 15:38	27%	8%	1.2%	78%
F9 3326 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 10:45	DFW 15:55	30%	12%	1.2%	56%
AA 3223 American Flight history →	SNA 18:46	DFW 23:59	32%	10%	1.7%	83%worse than usual
AA 2465 American Flight history →	SNA 15:39	DFW 20:41	39%	11%	1.2%	79%worse than usual
AA 2659 American Flight history →	SNA 16:30	DFW 21:40	41%	12%	1.5%	80%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON