Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 09:50, is the safest bet: 66% chance of reaching Detroit on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1328 Delta	SNA 12:36	DTW 19:53	34%	7%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 08:00 → SLC 10:58DL 1185	2h 52m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	8h 15m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	SNA 09:00 → MSP 14:36DL 2185	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 16:15 → DTW 18:59DL 1476	6h 59m	92%	73%
Delta Details →	SNA 07:45 → ATL 15:11DL 721	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	9h 28m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Las Vegas	LAS 23:10 → DTW 06:03 +1DL 502	7h 04m	89%	68%
Delta Details →	SNA 10:45 → LAS 12:04DL 4078 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Las Vegas	LAS 15:11 → DTW 22:17DL 778	8h 32m	96%	64%
United Details →	SNA 19:27 → SFO 21:05UA 5339 · flown by SkyWest	1h 45m San Francisco	SFO 22:50 → DTW 06:47 +1UA 1986	8h 20m	86%	62%
Frontier Details →	SNA 10:45 → DFW 15:55F9 3326	1h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:44 → DTW 21:27F9 3990	7h 42m	93%	59%
American Details →	SNA 08:46 → DFW 13:56AA 2596	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 15:25 → DTW 19:17AA 2822	7h 31m	93%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700	51m Houston	IAH 13:58 → DTW 17:59UA 6131 · flown by Mesa	7h 14m	73%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON