tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 16:12, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 56% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SNA 16:12 → SFO 17:50UA 5351 · flown by SkyWest 3h 52m San Francisco SFO 21:42 → IAD 06:03 +1UA 705 10h 51m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SNA 19:27 → SFO 21:05UA 5339 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m San Francisco SFO 23:20 → IAD 07:48 +1UA 2111 9h 21m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 51m Houston IAH 14:58 → IAD 19:20UA 1178 8h 35m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:06 → IAH 17:41UA 2044 2h 35m Houston IAH 20:16 → IAD 00:13 +1UA 1968 9h 07m 95% 70%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 44m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 7h 37m 94% 69%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:45 → ATL 15:11DL 721 1h 28m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:31DL 2902 7h 46m 91% 68%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 57m Denver DEN 15:40 → IAD 21:11UA 421 7h 51m 100% 64%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:47 → EWR 16:01UA 661 2h 35m Newark EWR 18:36 → IAD 19:59UA 3934 9h 12m 98% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548 1h 02m Seattle SEA 15:56 → IAD 23:42AS 366 8h 37m 71% 52%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:06 → IAH 17:41UA 2044 51m Houston IAH 18:32 → IAD 22:43UA 1373 7h 37m 68% 50%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56UA 1559 54m Newark EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784 7h 50m 56% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON