Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 700 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 700 SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2044 SNA 12:06 → IAH 17:41 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 700 United Flight history →	SNA 07:45	IAH 13:07	12%	5%	0.7%	93%
UA 688 United	SNA 10:04	IAH 15:28	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
UA 643 United Flight history →	SNA 15:05	IAH 20:27	20%	7%	0.7%	87%
UA 2044 United Flight history →	SNA 12:06	IAH 17:41	22%	8%	0.7%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON