Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via Phoenix, leaving 07:46, is the safest bet: 32% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 556 Delta Flight history →	SNA 21:00	JFK 05:27	15%	5%	2.3%	89%
AA 459 American	SNA 09:53	JFK 18:12	32%	9%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SNA 19:59 → LAS 21:17DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Las Vegas	LAS 23:43 → JFK 07:21 +1DL 1159	8h 22m	98%	79%
Alaska Details →	SNA 17:49 → SFO 19:25AS 3492 · flown by SkyWest	2h 53m San Francisco	SFO 22:18 → JFK 06:31 +1AS 40	9h 42m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	SNA 07:45 → ATL 15:11DL 721	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2398	10h 44m	97%	71%
American Details →	SNA 16:25 → PHX 17:54AA 2463	3h 56m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	10h 22m	94%	68%
Delta Details →	SNA 08:00 → SLC 10:58DL 1185	3h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:35 → JFK 21:25DL 671	10h 25m	95%	66%
Alaska Details →	SNA 07:45 → SEA 10:41AS 1325	3h 18m Seattle	SEA 13:59 → JFK 21:55AS 34	11h 10m	100%	62%
American Details →	SNA 07:46 → PHX 09:16AA 628	3h 48m Phoenix	PHX 13:04 → JFK 21:10AA 475	10h 24m	98%	60%
American Details →	SNA 12:32 → PHX 14:01AA 2454	1h 50m Phoenix	PHX 15:51 → JFK 23:58AA 832	8h 26m	96%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SNA 07:46 → PHX 09:16AA 628	46m Phoenix	PHX 10:02 → JFK 17:45AA 2339	6h 59m	47%	32%
American Details →	SNA 08:50 → ORD 15:13AA 2590	46m Chicago	ORD 15:59 → JFK 19:07AA 2224	7h 17m	45%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON