Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2972 at 08:04 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 2972 SNA 08:04 → LAS 09:20 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1783 SNA 18:23 → LAS 19:39 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2972 Southwest	SNA 08:04	LAS 09:20	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 116 Southwest	SNA 09:24	LAS 10:40	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4078 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 10:45	LAS 12:04	17%	6%	0.7%	87%
WN 3994 Southwest	SNA 10:44	LAS 12:00	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 4179 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:59	LAS 21:17	27%	8%	0.8%	83%worse than usual
WN 2341 Southwest	SNA 12:09	LAS 13:25	33%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 580 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 13:37	LAS 14:53	37%	12%	0.6%	60%
WN 269 Southwest	SNA 20:50	LAS 22:06	43%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 2424 Southwest	SNA 16:59	LAS 18:15	45%	15%	0.6%	no record
WN 1783 Southwest	SNA 18:23	LAS 19:39	48%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON