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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:45 → ATL 15:11DL 721 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468 10h 43m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 50m Denver DEN 13:59 → LGA 19:53UA 1579 8h 08m 94% 68%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 3h 08m Houston IAH 16:15 → LGA 20:59UA 334 10h 14m 98% 66%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 17m Denver DEN 16:00 → LGA 21:54UA 2168 8h 34m 100% 64%
DeltaDetails → SNA 09:00 → MSP 14:36DL 2185 54m Minneapolis MSP 15:30 → LGA 19:18DL 2732 7h 18m 77% 60%
AmericanDetails → SNA 08:46 → DFW 13:56AA 2596 2h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:49 → LGA 21:29AA 2513 9h 43m 97% 58%
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:28 → DFW 15:38AA 2114 3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:01 → LGA 23:31AA 1375 10h 03m 94% 56%
AmericanDetails → SNA 09:34 → DFW 14:47AA 1686 3h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:55 → LGA 22:25AA 2570 9h 51m 92% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:06 → IAH 17:41UA 2044 49m Houston IAH 18:30 → LGA 22:58UA 2682 7h 52m 66% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON