tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 14:45, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 46% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SNA 14:45 → SEA 17:32AS 760 3h 57m Seattle SEA 21:29 → MCO 05:52 +1AS 390 12h 07m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 08:59 → SEA 11:49AS 702 3h 39m Seattle SEA 15:28 → MCO 23:55AS 420 11h 56m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 38m Salt Lake City SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069 9h 57m 99% 71%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 39m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 7h 54m 94% 68%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 29m Houston IAH 14:36 → MCO 18:14UA 496 7h 29m 96% 66%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:45 → ATL 15:11DL 721 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 9h 03m 95% 65%
SouthwestDetails → SNA 13:37 → LAS 14:53WN 580 1h 32m Las Vegas LAS 16:25 → MCO 23:55WN 2774 7h 18m 95% 58%
AmericanDetails → SNA 12:32 → PHX 14:01AA 2454 1h 45m Phoenix PHX 15:46 → MCO 22:50AA 603 7h 18m 93% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:45 → ATL 15:11DL 721 49m Atlanta ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742 7h 02m 65% 45%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56UA 1559 59m Newark EWR 21:55 → MCO 00:41 +1UA 1190 9h 12m 61% 41%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:43 → ORD 18:02AA 2285 57m Chicago ORD 18:59 → MCO 22:54AA 3176 8h 11m 46% 17%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON