Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 13:37, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	SNA 13:37 → LAS 14:53WN 580	3h 21m Las Vegas	LAS 18:14 → MDW 23:45WN 2179	8h 08m	95%	59%
Delta Details →	SNA 09:00 → MSP 14:36DL 2185	2h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 16:38 → MDW 18:18DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	7h 17m	94%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON