tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:03, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 38% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 37m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → SNA 19:27 → SFO 21:05UA 5339 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m San Francisco SFO 22:54 → MIA 07:39 +1UA 1769 9h 12m 88% 66%
AmericanDetails → SNA 20:24 → PHX 21:52AA 2471 1h 51m Phoenix PHX 23:43 → MIA 07:19 +1AA 3224 7h 55m 75% 57%
AmericanDetails → SNA 07:46 → PHX 09:16AA 628 2h 57m Phoenix PHX 12:13 → MIA 19:41AA 404 8h 55m 96% 55%
AmericanDetails → SNA 08:46 → DFW 13:56AA 2596 2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308 8h 49m 97% 49%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 2h 25m Denver DEN 16:08 → MIA 22:01UA 445 8h 41m 100% 49%
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:06 → IAH 17:41UA 2044 1h 20m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 7h 34m 81% 47%
DeltaDetails → SNA 07:45 → ATL 15:11DL 721 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → MIA 18:22DL 719 7h 37m 88% 46%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SNA 10:28 → DFW 15:38AA 2114 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308 7h 07m 68% 35%
AmericanDetails → SNA 11:43 → ORD 18:02AA 2285 1h 08m Chicago ORD 19:10 → MIA 23:31AA 1159 8h 48m 60% 26%
AmericanDetails → SNA 15:39 → DFW 20:41AA 2465 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → MIA 01:23 +1AA 9791 6h 44m 38% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON