tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2185 Delta Flight history → SNA 09:00 MSP 14:36 19% 5% 0.7% 85%
DL 626 Delta SNA 12:54 MSP 18:28 27% 8% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Santa Ana). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:45 → PDX 10:15AS 750 1h 34m Portland PDX 11:49 → MSP 17:02AS 332 7h 17m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58DL 1277 3h 19m Salt Lake City SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847 7h 46m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 07:45 → SEA 10:41AS 1325 2h 47m Seattle SEA 13:28 → MSP 18:36AS 509 8h 51m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → SNA 07:45 → IAH 13:07UA 700 1h 41m Houston IAH 14:48 → MSP 17:49UA 1818 8h 04m 97% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548 3h 46m Seattle SEA 18:40 → MSP 23:55AS 527 9h 50m 100% 72%
DeltaDetails → SNA 08:00 → SLC 10:58DL 1185 3h 02m Salt Lake City SLC 14:00 → MSP 17:32DL 2936 7h 32m 95% 72%
UnitedDetails → SNA 08:45 → DEN 12:09UA 489 1h 33m Denver DEN 13:42 → MSP 16:46UA 732 6h 01m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843 1h 59m Denver DEN 15:42 → MSP 18:46UA 2470 6h 26m 100% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SNA 12:29 → EWR 20:56UA 1559 59m Newark EWR 21:55 → MSP 23:59UA 1331 9h 30m 61% 38%
AmericanDetails → SNA 08:50 → ORD 15:13AA 2590 52m Chicago ORD 16:05 → MSP 18:03AA 2472 7h 13m 55% 27%
AmericanDetails → SNA 15:39 → DFW 20:41AA 2465 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → MSP 23:57AA 3149 6h 18m 41% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON