Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1102 at 08:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1102 SNA 08:02 → OAK 09:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3164 SNA 19:24 → OAK 20:57 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1102 Southwest	SNA 08:02	OAK 09:36	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3587 Southwest	SNA 09:52	OAK 11:25	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3997 Southwest	SNA 12:27	OAK 14:00	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 1227 Southwest	SNA 21:10	OAK 22:43	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 4113 Southwest Flight history →	SNA 14:51	OAK 16:25	27%	7%	0.6%	90%worse than usual
WN 2897 Southwest	SNA 17:09	OAK 18:43	27%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 3164 Southwest	SNA 19:24	OAK 20:57	30%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON