Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 2590 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 29% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 51–56%.

Safest bet that day AA 2590 SNA 08:50 → ORD 15:13 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 3151 SNA 15:07 → ORD 21:14 · 56% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2590 American Flight history →	SNA 08:50	ORD 15:13	29%	12%	1.5%	88%worse than usual
AA 2285 American Flight history →	SNA 11:43	ORD 18:02	51%	20%	1.5%	68%worse than usual
AA 3151 American	SNA 15:07	ORD 21:14	56%	22%	2.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SNA 10:20 → DEN 13:43UA 2843	57m Denver	DEN 14:40 → ORD 18:19UA 2426	5h 59m	79%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON