Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 750 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–21%.

Safest bet that day AS 750 SNA 07:45 → PDX 10:15 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 588 SNA 14:16 → PDX 16:48 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 750 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 07:45	PDX 10:15	11%	3%	0.9%	96%
AS 1405 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 10:57	PDX 13:21	15%	3%	0.9%	91%
AS 573 Alaska	SNA 20:59	PDX 23:29	20%	4%	0.9%	no record
AS 589 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 18:09	PDX 20:31	21%	4%	0.9%	95%worse than usual
AS 588 Alaska	SNA 14:16	PDX 16:48	23%	4%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON