Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 537 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 537 SNA 07:45 → PHX 09:11 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2471 SNA 20:24 → PHX 21:49 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 537 Southwest	SNA 07:45	PHX 09:11	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1064 Southwest	SNA 09:31	PHX 10:56	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 1720 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 09:17	PHX 10:52	22%	9%	1.5%	85%
AA 628 American Flight history →	SNA 07:46	PHX 09:16	23%	7%	0.8%	88%worse than usual
AA 2360 American	SNA 09:57	PHX 11:26	26%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 2702 Southwest	SNA 11:08	PHX 12:33	28%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3696 Southwest	SNA 15:18	PHX 16:43	34%	9%	0.6%	no record
AA 2283 American	SNA 13:21	PHX 14:49	37%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 2287 Southwest	SNA 14:00	PHX 15:25	37%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 4006 Southwest	SNA 20:25	PHX 21:50	38%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 4004 Southwest	SNA 17:12	PHX 18:38	38%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 2454 American Flight history →	SNA 12:32	PHX 14:01	39%	10%	0.7%	72%worse than usual
WN 4041 Southwest	SNA 19:37	PHX 21:03	39%	11%	0.7%	no record
AA 1933 American	SNA 13:49	PHX 15:14	39%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 2463 American Flight history →	SNA 16:25	PHX 17:54	42%	10%	0.8%	77%worse than usual
AA 2471 American Flight history →	SNA 20:24	PHX 21:49	43%	13%	1.0%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON