Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AS 702 at 08:59 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–37%.

Safest bet that day AS 702 SNA 08:59 → SEA 11:49 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1001 SNA 14:10 → SEA 16:56 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 702 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 08:59	SEA 11:49	22%	4%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
OO 3687 SkyWest	SNA 08:37	SEA 11:29	27%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 1428 Alaska	SNA 10:51	SEA 13:35	27%	6%	1.0%	no record
AS 1325 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 07:45	SEA 10:41	28%	6%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
AS 548 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 12:05	SEA 14:54	32%	6%	1.0%	92%worse than usual
AS 760 Alaska Flight history →	SNA 14:45	SEA 17:32	32%	7%	1.0%	88%worse than usual
AS 1339 Alaska	SNA 19:57	SEA 22:23	35%	7%	0.9%	no record
OO 3697 SkyWest	SNA 18:04	SEA 20:53	36%	9%	0.8%	no record
OO 3694 SkyWest	SNA 11:59	SEA 14:49	36%	8%	0.9%	no record
AS 773 Alaska	SNA 16:46	SEA 19:29	37%	8%	1.0%	no record
DL 1001 Delta	SNA 14:10	SEA 16:56	40%	8%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON