Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1320 at 15:06 is the safest bet, 27% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day UA 1320 SNA 15:06 → SFO 16:54 · 27% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3054 SNA 09:13 → SFO 10:49 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1320 United	SNA 15:06	SFO 16:54	27%	15%	0.8%	no record
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 17:49	SFO 19:25	28%	13%	1.1%	62%
OO 3493 SkyWest	SNA 20:33	SFO 22:09	29%	12%	1.3%	no record
UA 5351 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:12	SFO 17:50	29%	14%	1.0%	67%
UA 2111 United	SNA 18:22	SFO 20:10	30%	18%	0.8%	no record
AS 3251 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 07:45	SFO 09:34	30%	11%	1.1%	93%worse than usual
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 16:23	SFO 17:59	31%	13%	1.0%	72%
F9 3581 Frontier Flight history →	SNA 17:54	SFO 19:34	31%	15%	1.1%	61%
AS 736 Alaska	SNA 19:31	SFO 21:15	32%	14%	0.8%	no record
OO 5330 SkyWest	SNA 11:11	SFO 13:03	33%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 5339 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SNA 19:27	SFO 21:05	34%	16%	1.2%	50%
OO 3055 SkyWest	SNA 13:49	SFO 15:25	34%	14%	1.0%	no record
UA 653 United	SNA 07:47	SFO 09:21	35%	13%	0.8%	no record
OO 3039 SkyWest	SNA 11:52	SFO 13:28	37%	13%	1.0%	no record
OO 5616 SkyWest	SNA 09:44	SFO 11:20	41%	18%	1.0%	no record
OO 3054 SkyWest	SNA 09:13	SFO 10:49	41%	17%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON