Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1185 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1185 SNA 08:00 → SLC 10:58 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1277 SNA 17:03 → SLC 19:58 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1185 Delta Flight history →	SNA 08:00	SLC 10:58	15%	5%	0.7%	91%
DL 1198 Delta Flight history →	SNA 09:50	SLC 12:46	20%	6%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
DL 1671 Delta	SNA 13:46	SLC 16:42	28%	10%	0.9%	no record
OO 3730 SkyWest	SNA 19:01	SLC 22:01	28%	13%	1.6%	no record
DL 1277 Delta Flight history →	SNA 17:03	SLC 19:58	33%	9%	1.6%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON