Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1499 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1499 SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 3115 SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1499 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 06:00	ATL 07:39	4%	2%	1.5%	94%
DL 1445 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 07:04	ATL 08:45	4%	2%	1.5%	94%
DL 3196 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 11:01	ATL 12:41	8%	4%	1.5%	92%
DL 3104 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 12:50	ATL 14:32	15%	4%	1.4%	85%
DL 3109 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 18:18	ATL 20:09	25%	8%	3.5%	80%
DL 3115 Delta Flight history →	SRQ 16:25	ATL 18:08	26%	7%	2.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON