tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2403 Southwest SRQ 12:20 BNA 13:24 17% 4% 1.1% no record
WN 4025 Southwest SRQ 20:35 BNA 21:40 24% 9% 2.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → BNA 09:50DL 1155 4h 50m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 5h 26m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 3h 10m Charlotte CLT 11:25 → BNA 11:55AA 2409 6h 34m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 1h 48m Newark EWR 10:41 → BNA 12:02UA 2776 7h 02m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 14:25 → BNA 14:38DL 790 4h 37m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 18:31 → BNA 18:52DL 1490 7h 02m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121 5h 57m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 11:53 → CLT 13:57AA 1452 1h 19m Charlotte CLT 15:16 → BNA 15:47AA 3291 4h 54m 92% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SRQ 12:15 → EWR 15:08UA 2612 57m Newark EWR 16:05 → BNA 17:46UA 2454 6h 31m 70% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON