tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 2584 at 12:07, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2584 American Flight history → SRQ 12:07 DCA 14:40 28% 7% 2.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 27m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:46DL 1798 5h 42m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 58m Charlotte CLT 09:13 → DCA 10:41AA 3043 4h 20m 92% 76%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 2h 28m Miami MIA 09:52 → DCA 12:33AA 1612 6h 11m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850 6h 29m 98% 69%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08DL 3115 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 7h 27m 99% 68%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 2h 07m Newark EWR 11:00 → DCA 12:23UA 4172 · flown by GoJet 6h 23m 97% 66%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 5h 47m 96% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109 46m Atlanta ATL 20:55 → DCA 22:48DL 378 4h 30m 69% 43%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08DL 3115 47m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325 4h 22m 67% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON