Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, MQ 4072 at 17:23, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4072 Envoy	SRQ 17:23	DFW 19:21	32%	13%	9.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 12m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	6h 40m	99%	80%
American Details →	SRQ 05:59 → CLT 07:54AA 2264	1h 31m Charlotte	CLT 09:25 → DFW 11:12AA 575	6h 13m	96%	75%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	2h 09m Miami	MIA 09:33 → DFW 11:46AA 893	6h 24m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → DFW 15:18DL 921	5h 17m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818	6h 55m	95%	68%
Delta Details →	SRQ 13:21 → ATL 15:03DL 3104	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 17:24 → DFW 18:48DL 374	6h 27m	97%	67%
American Details →	SRQ 12:07 → DCA 14:40AA 2584	2h 31m Washington	DCA 17:11 → DFW 19:41AA 1414	8h 34m	94%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON