Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: UA 1343 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1343 United Flight history →	SRQ 06:00	EWR 08:53	5%	3%	1.5%	94%
UA 2612 United Flight history →	SRQ 12:15	EWR 15:08	27%	10%	1.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401	6h 21m	98%	80%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	1h 16m Miami	MIA 08:40 → EWR 11:45AA 1801	5h 23m	92%	75%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 10:30 → EWR 12:21AA 1697	6h 00m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312	7h 12m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340	6h 53m	98%	60%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552	6h 40m	93%	60%
American Details →	SRQ 11:53 → CLT 13:57AA 1452	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 16:47 → EWR 18:54AA 1330	7h 01m	98%	59%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08DL 3115	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527	6h 04m	94%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON