tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:04, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Houston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572 7h 29m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → IAH 11:14DL 1682 6h 14m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343 2h 00m Newark EWR 10:53 → IAH 13:38UA 556 8h 38m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 14:43 → IAH 15:54DL 1223 5h 53m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 6h 39m 95% 67%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08DL 3115 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284 5h 59m 95% 65%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 16:23 → IAH 17:35DL 1131 5h 45m 94% 64%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 14:30 → LGA 17:30DL 2412 59m New York LGA 18:29 → IAH 21:44DL 2109 8h 14m 79% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08DL 3115 52m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → IAH 20:14DL 2327 4h 49m 70% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON