tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 2412 at 14:30, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2412 Delta Flight history → SRQ 14:30 LGA 17:30 20% 11% 2.8% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 42m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 7h 46m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 14:30 → LGA 16:50DL 524 5h 49m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 33m Miami MIA 08:57 → LGA 12:00AA 605 5h 38m 93% 75%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08DL 3115 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 6h 59m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434 7h 37m 98% 69%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 1h 05m Charlotte CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150 4h 54m 92% 69%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 11:53 → CLT 13:57AA 1452 3h 41m Charlotte CLT 17:38 → LGA 19:41AA 1060 7h 48m 100% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109 51m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 5h 06m 68% 49%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08DL 3115 52m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468 5h 03m 70% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON