Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4802 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 37%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4802 Southwest	SRQ 05:45	MCO 06:41	5%	2%	1.4%	no record
WN 1658 Southwest	SRQ 19:15	MCO 20:11	37%	12%	4.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 09:25 → MCO 10:57DL 1658	4h 57m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:25 → MCO 13:00DL 1030	5h 56m	99%	78%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 10:59 → MCO 12:39AA 1576	6h 18m	97%	75%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	1h 08m Newark	EWR 10:01 → MCO 12:54UA 1739	6h 54m	95%	74%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	2h 13m Miami	MIA 09:37 → MCO 10:38AA 2587	4h 16m	94%	71%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	6h 58m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742	6h 46m	98%	62%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	5h 40m	93%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SRQ 12:07 → DCA 14:40AA 2584	57m Washington	DCA 15:37 → MCO 18:05AA 2509	5h 58m	71%	42%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08DL 3115	52m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → MCO 20:35DL 2881	4h 10m	70%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON