Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, AA 4139 at 06:22, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4139 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SRQ 06:22	MIA 07:24	9%	3%	1.2%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → MIA 10:57DL 1510	4h 57m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	6h 03m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08DL 3115	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → MIA 23:39DL 1234	7h 14m	99%	65%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 37m	95%	64%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	2h 47m Charlotte	CLT 11:02 → MIA 13:11AA 969	6h 50m	97%	63%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	2h 39m Newark	EWR 11:32 → MIA 14:39UA 2295	8h 39m	97%	59%
Delta Details →	SRQ 14:30 → LGA 17:30DL 2412	2h 25m New York	LGA 19:55 → MIA 23:22DL 2382	8h 52m	95%	59%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386	5h 54m	97%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON