tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270 4h 57m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → PHL 13:24DL 2279 6h 20m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy 1h 51m Miami MIA 09:15 → PHL 12:10AA 551 5h 48m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264 1h 11m Charlotte CLT 09:26 → PHL 11:15AA 2565 4h 54m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692 5h 03m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109 2h 47m Atlanta ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642 6h 41m 95% 67%
AmericanDetails → SRQ 11:53 → CLT 13:57AA 1452 3h 07m Charlotte CLT 17:04 → PHL 19:01AA 864 7h 08m 100% 65%
DeltaDetails → SRQ 16:25 → ATL 18:08DL 3115 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:28DL 1174 6h 03m 96% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON