Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 2383 at 19:55, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2383 Southwest	SRQ 19:55	STL 21:31	30%	7%	4.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Sarasota/Bradenton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SRQ 06:00 → ATL 07:39DL 1499	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:04 → STL 09:43DL 1400	4h 43m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SRQ 07:04 → ATL 08:45DL 1445	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566	6h 13m	99%	83%
United Details →	SRQ 06:00 → EWR 08:53UA 1343	48m Newark	EWR 09:41 → STL 11:18UA 2311	6h 18m	94%	77%
American Details →	SRQ 06:21 → CLT 08:15AA 2264	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 11:00 → STL 12:05AA 3096	6h 44m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	SRQ 11:01 → ATL 12:41DL 3196	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 15:16 → STL 16:06DL 543	6h 05m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	SRQ 12:50 → ATL 14:32DL 3104	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393	6h 03m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	SRQ 18:18 → ATL 20:09DL 3109	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403	6h 35m	96%	71%
American Details →	SRQ 06:22 → MIA 07:24AA 4139 · flown by Envoy	3h 53m Miami	MIA 11:17 → STL 13:14AA 477	7h 52m	98%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON