Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4064 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4064 STL 05:55 → ATL 08:48 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1679 STL 16:55 → ATL 19:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4064 Southwest	STL 05:55	ATL 08:48	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 1524 Delta Flight history →	STL 06:00	ATL 08:38	7%	4%	0.8%	96%
DL 1536 Delta Flight history →	STL 07:08	ATL 09:45	8%	4%	0.9%	97%
DL 1571 Delta Flight history →	STL 09:24	ATL 12:02	9%	4%	2.1%	94%
WN 1332 Southwest	STL 10:20	ATL 13:15	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 1400 Delta Flight history →	STL 10:51	ATL 13:25	11%	4%	1.0%	88%
DL 566 Delta Flight history →	STL 13:22	ATL 16:07	16%	5%	0.9%	86%
DL 1393 Delta Flight history →	STL 18:58	ATL 21:44	21%	7%	1.0%	83%
DL 543 Delta Flight history →	STL 16:55	ATL 19:46	22%	8%	0.9%	81%
WN 1679 Southwest	STL 16:55	ATL 19:50	28%	9%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON