tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3743 at 17:25, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3743 Southwest STL 17:25 CHS 20:30 28% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107 5h 00m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 11m Minneapolis MSP 12:41 → CHS 16:25DL 2463 6h 36m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 1h 01m Detroit DTW 10:05 → CHS 12:20DL 5431 · flown by Endeavor 4h 50m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179 5h 34m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:19 → DTW 12:53DL 2868 2h 54m Detroit DTW 15:47 → CHS 17:55DL 3016 6h 36m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381 5h 29m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → CHS 00:26 +1DL 2850 6h 31m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 4506 · flown by GoJet 1h 17m Dulles IAD 13:12 → CHS 15:10UA 1952 5h 27m 87% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 1h 00m Chicago ORD 10:35 → CHS 13:50UA 2631 4h 50m 72% 55%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:33 → ORD 09:08AA 1997 48m Chicago ORD 09:56 → CHS 13:14AA 2154 4h 41m 72% 54%
UnitedDetails → STL 12:55 → IAD 16:07UA 4454 · flown by GoJet 1h 08m Dulles IAD 17:15 → CHS 19:07UA 4310 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 12m 74% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON