tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1206 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1206 Southwest STL 10:15 CLE 12:59 10% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 3510 Southwest STL 20:00 CLE 22:43 23% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Cleveland is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 4h 32m 93% 81%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → CLE 13:32DL 775 5h 24m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:15 → CLT 08:09AA 1515 1h 55m Charlotte CLT 10:04 → CLE 11:41AA 1294 5h 26m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:14 → PHL 09:34AA 1308 3h 16m Philadelphia PHL 12:50 → CLE 14:38AA 5861 · flown by Piedmont 7h 24m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 1h 29m Chicago ORD 10:29 → CLE 12:58UA 2389 4h 38m 92% 75%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 4h 56m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → STL 11:10 → IAH 13:25UA 6213 · flown by Mesa 1h 10m Houston IAH 14:35 → CLE 18:30UA 1934 6h 20m 90% 73%
AmericanDetails → STL 07:32 → CLT 10:30AA 712 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 13:32 → CLE 15:12AA 1562 6h 40m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 54m Chicago ORD 10:29 → CLE 12:58UA 2389 3h 58m 66% 54%
DeltaDetails → STL 14:30 → SLC 16:37DL 2455 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CLE 22:58DL 2855 7h 28m 59% 42%
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 53m Chicago ORD 17:53 → CLE 20:21UA 2652 3h 59m 51% 23%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON