Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: AA 1515 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1515 STL 05:15 → CLT 08:09 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 205 STL 16:25 → CLT 19:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1515 American Flight history →	STL 05:15	CLT 08:09	7%	5%	1.2%	94%
AA 712 American Flight history →	STL 07:32	CLT 10:30	11%	7%	1.3%	83%
AA 2497 American Flight history →	STL 09:13	CLT 12:08	14%	6%	2.1%	87%
AA 3096 American Flight history →	STL 12:43	CLT 15:35	19%	7%	1.2%	86%
OH 5161 PSA	STL 19:18	CLT 22:18	20%	7%	2.0%	no record
WN 205 Southwest	STL 16:25	CLT 19:15	28%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON