tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3094 at 10:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3094 Southwest STL 10:15 CMH 12:49 9% 3% 0.9% no record
WN 431 Southwest STL 19:55 CMH 22:28 36% 11% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 16m Detroit DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic 5h 57m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522 4h 48m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 18m Minneapolis MSP 10:14 → CMH 13:05DL 2550 5h 44m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750 5h 30m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 13:54 → DTW 16:30DL 1371 3h 24m Detroit DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic 6h 08m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 18:09 → DTW 20:44DL 2822 2h 06m Detroit DTW 22:50 → CMH 23:56DL 5634 · flown by Republic 4h 47m 95% 85%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:52UA 4028 · flown by Mesa 1h 23m Houston IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa 6h 30m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 2h 17m Atlanta ATL 14:19 → CMH 15:58DL 2892 5h 34m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → STL 14:30 → SLC 16:37DL 2455 48m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CMH 22:52DL 2230 7h 22m 59% 37%
UnitedDetails → STL 19:05 → ORD 20:39UA 4165 · flown by GoJet 51m Chicago ORD 21:30 → CMH 23:59UA 1492 3h 54m 61% 29%
UnitedDetails → STL 15:22 → ORD 17:00UA 4452 · flown by GoJet 56m Chicago ORD 17:56 → CMH 20:20UA 1278 3h 58m 56% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON