Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 4634 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–33%.

Safest bet that day YX 4634 STL 05:55 → DCA 09:13 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4060 STL 19:45 → DCA 22:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4634 Republic	STL 05:55	DCA 09:13	6%	2%	1.6%	no record
WN 4963 Southwest	STL 08:20	DCA 11:32	10%	4%	2.3%	no record
YX 4436 Republic	STL 10:38	DCA 13:56	11%	5%	1.9%	no record
WN 3586 Southwest	STL 13:05	DCA 16:17	24%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 3846 Southwest	STL 15:47	DCA 18:59	28%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2286 American Flight history →	STL 17:08	DCA 20:19	32%	12%	1.7%	58%
WN 4060 Southwest	STL 19:45	DCA 22:57	33%	10%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON