Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3356 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 3356 STL 06:20 → DEN 07:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2323 STL 16:38 → DEN 18:24 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3356 Southwest	STL 06:20	DEN 07:43	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 5548 SkyWest	STL 05:09	DEN 06:34	9%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 1230 Southwest	STL 08:30	DEN 09:52	12%	4%	1.7%	no record
UA 2459 United Flight history →	STL 09:06	DEN 10:30	16%	6%	1.8%	92%
WN 2104 Southwest	STL 12:56	DEN 14:18	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 2419 Southwest	STL 21:58	DEN 23:16	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 1380 United Flight history →	STL 13:38	DEN 15:00	29%	10%	0.9%	86%worse than usual
WN 4093 Southwest	STL 14:41	DEN 16:04	35%	13%	0.7%	no record
WN 1713 Southwest	STL 19:01	DEN 20:25	37%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 1374 Southwest	STL 17:05	DEN 18:28	43%	15%	0.7%	no record
UA 2323 United	STL 16:38	DEN 18:24	43%	16%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON