Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3917 at 16:05, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3917 Southwest	STL 16:05	ECP 18:08	22%	9%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 48m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	4h 30m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	6h 42m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094	5h 21m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	4h 33m	97%	77%
American Details →	STL 05:15 → CLT 08:09AA 1515	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 09:54 → ECP 10:48AA 5262 · flown by PSA	5h 33m	93%	75%
American Details →	STL 05:32 → DFW 07:30AA 2261	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:30 → ECP 11:37AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	6h 05m	96%	75%
American Details →	STL 12:43 → CLT 15:35AA 3096	1h 52m Charlotte	CLT 17:27 → ECP 18:13AA 5297 · flown by PSA	5h 30m	100%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	STL 16:55 → ATL 19:46DL 543	49m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	3h 51m	71%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON