Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: YX 3715 at 09:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–35%.

Safest bet that day YX 3715 STL 09:30 → EWR 13:04 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 3710 STL 16:50 → EWR 20:24 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3715 Republic	STL 09:30	EWR 13:04	13%	6%	4.0%	no record
UA 577 United	STL 07:25	EWR 10:44	13%	5%	1.5%	no record
UA 560 United	STL 12:15	EWR 15:38	27%	11%	1.8%	no record
YX 3710 Republic	STL 16:50	EWR 20:24	35%	13%	3.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON